There are some intriguing candidates among the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year betting odds, even in what many considered to be a relatively weak draft class this year. This award is somewhat different from some of the others in that it is hard to drill down which position could take it home. In the last six years, we have seen two running backs, two quarterbacks, and two wide receivers win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
In the article below, we will look at the current odds for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, as well as who our betting analysts believe will hold the trophy this year and who could be the intriguing longshots. In this article, our analysts are PFN’s Chief NFL Analyst Trey Wingo, Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Betting and Fantasy Analysts BJ Rudell and Jason Katz, and FOX Sports’ Chris “The Bear” Fallica.
Live NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of June 16, 2023.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
Wingo: Obviously, the skill set Bijan Robinson (+250) brings to the NFL is eclectic. And with a less-than-certain situation at QB, head coach Arthur Smith is going to find plenty of ways to use his rookie RB. Remember, Smith was a highly touted OC in Tennessee before getting the job in Atlanta.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica: Bryce Young (+500 at FanDuel) was the most pro-ready QB in the draft because of his ability to process and make decisions quickly. Now he will start for a team that is in a poor division and has some things to work with on offense. He also faces some bad defenses right off the bat, which should allow him to have a smoother transition. It’s not a sexy pick, but I think it’s the smartest one.
Bearman: Fallica made all the good points about why Bryce Young is the smart pick. However, there are going to be growing pains in Carolina, and I am not sold that he was the best QB in the draft to begin with. He very well may win the award because he plays all 17 games and has the best season of any rookie QB.
However, Bijan Robinson (+250) is where I am going to put my money. Arthur Smith is a run-first guy and should us Bijan as a three-down back. He has the same easy schedule that Young has, but I think Robinson has a better chance to succeed.
BJ: This year’s NFL Draft marked the first time four consecutive wideouts were selected in the first round. The last of these four picks was Jordan Addison (+1700), who landed in perhaps an ideal spot for a rookie-year breakout.
While oddsmakers and bettors justifiably love Bijan Robinson and other favorites to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, Addison joins a top-heavy offense that vacated 25% of their 2022 targets (Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen). There’s clear 80-1,100-1 potential here.
Katz: It would be a dereliction of duty to recommend anything other than Bijan Robinson at +250. While Anthony Richardson is interesting at +600, it’s difficult to see any of the quarterbacks winning it without taking their teams to the playoffs. Robinson is the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. He’s got a three-down skill set and is joining the most run-heavy offense in the league. He’s certainly not a great value, but he’s the most likely to win it.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Sleepers and Longshots
Wingo: Keep your eye on two WRs: Jaxson Smith-Njigba (+900) and Quentin Johnston (+2500). Smith goes to a WR corps in Seattle where he won’t be the main focus, which should create great opportunities for him. Johnston has one of the best QBs in the game who is looking to get his new WR action soon in a group of aging LA pass catchers. Add in the ground presence of Austin Ekeler and Johnston should shine.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica: Quentin Johnston (+2500) fell into a great spot with the Chargers. He’s got one of the best QBs in the league and fellow WRs Mike Willaims and Keenan Allen can’t stay on the field on a consistent basis. He’s going to get plenty of looks in this offense, and if a WR again wins OROY, this is the one I’d back.
Bearman: This is going to be a shot in the dark, but that’s really the exercise right? I love the weapons in Detroit, and should something happen to Jared Goff, former Vol Hendon Hooker (+3000) would step into a great situation. No, I am not rooting for an injury or expecting one, but that would be one great offense for him to step into, and I loved everything I saw from Hooker last season until he got hurt.
BJ: The Tennessee Titans are in no man’s land as a franchise, looking up at the ascending Jaguars and looking down at the retooling Colts and Texans. On the assumption they have no easy path to the playoffs, they’re more likely than not to trade the aging Derrick Henry for top dollar and continue their rebuild ahead of 2024 and 2025.
Enter Tyjae Spears (+3000), who brings bell-cow abilities (including strong receiving chops). The rookie was drafted in the third round for a reason. We’ll see if it plays out this year or in a future year when Henry’s officially a post-prime 30-something-year-old.
Katz: If you really want a longshot pick, the only one with even a remotely plausible path is Zach Charbonnet at +2500. Similar to how Kenneth Walker III gave the 2022 OROY award a run after Rashaad Penny went down, if Walker were to go down, Charbonnet would see an increased workload. If things break right, he could do something similar, except he won’t have a Garrett Wilson to compete with at wide receiver.
Recent Risers and Fallers
The biggest riser in terms of Offensive Rookie of the Year odds has been Richardson. Heading into the draft, he sat at around +1500 at some sportsbooks but has dropped to +600 as the third favorite to take home the award. With a landing spot in Indianapolis, we could easily see Richardson starting very early in 2023, greatly increasing his chances.
One of the biggest fallers of the main candidates has been Charbonnet after being drafted by the Seahawks. On draft weekend, Charbonnet was at or under +2000, but that has now faded out to +2500 on DraftKings sportsbook, as well as being higher in other places.
Other fallers of note following draft weekend were Zay Flowers and Johnston. Flowers has a shot to be a starter from Week 1 in the Baltimore Ravens’ offense, but the run-heavy nature of their game plan will limit his upside. Meanwhile, Johnston could find himself fighting for opportunities with Williams and Allen.
Who Is the Favorite To Win Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Robinson has been installed as the clear favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +250. Robinson has landed in a spot where he could very easily be a Week 1 starter for the Falcons, but he also benefits from uncertainty elsewhere in this class.
There is a lack of clarity over how much we will see of the likes of Young, C.J. Stroud, and Richardson as rookies. Meanwhile, the WR position lacks clear standout options beyond Smith-Njigba, who could find his opportunities limited in a talented Seahawks wide receiver depth chart.
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